Vanishing species? Franklin County no longer Republican-friendly habitat
The Columbus Dispatch
Feb 14, 2010
By Joe Hallett
Last November, Matt Ferris came within 1,100 votes of becoming the first Republican to win a seat on the Columbus City Council in a decade.
Is that good news or bad news for the Franklin County Republican Party?
Ferris easily came closer than any other GOP council candidate since Jennette Bradley was re-elected in 1999. Did his near-miss show that a Republican can still win in Columbus, or is 1,100 votes about as close as one can hope to come?
"If anyone got anything out of my race, it's that, yes, a Republican can still win in Columbus," said Ferris, a 30-year-old financial adviser.
William Anthony, chairman of the Franklin County Democratic Party, isn't so sure: "It could change, but right now, I think they're going to have a hard time winning a seat on City Council, just because the numbers aren't there for them."
Not so long ago, Republicans ruled Franklin County and its biggest city, controlling the Columbus mayor's office for 28 years before Democrat Michael B. Coleman's election in 1999. But over the past eight years, the city and county gradually have turned deeper shades of blue, indicating that this might now be reliable Democratic turf.
"There are no safe Republican suburbs in the county now," lamented Brad Sinnott, chairman of the Franklin County GOP's Central Committee. "They're all competitive. Franklin County is behaving more like the traditional behavior of a major metropolis in the Midwest or Northeast."
Along with all of city government, Democrats control all three county commissioner seats, half of the eight other county administrative offices, and seven of the nine state representative seats in the county. Before the 2006 election, Republicans held six of those House seats.
"The Franklin County Republican Party is in bad shape," said Ohio Democratic Chairman Chris Redfern. "Part of it is due to the things you cannot necessarily control through better management -- the shifting tides in political loyalties, the outgrowth of population from Columbus.
"And, where there are large urban universities, Democrats in the counties where they are located tend to do better. That's what's happening in Franklin County."
Over time, the migration of Republicans from Franklin County to its collar counties -- Delaware, Fairfield, Licking, Madison, Pickaway and Union -- made them redder and Franklin bluer.
For example, in the 1988 presidential election, the combined Republican vote in the six ring counties was only 9.4 percent higher than the GOP vote in Franklin. In the five successive elections, the GOP vote gradually grew in the ring counties, apparently at Franklin's expense. The ring counties voted'.8 percent more Republican than did Franklin in 2008.
Although unaffiliated or independent voters still outnumber Democrats and Republicans combined in Franklin County, Democrats hold a 3-to-1 registration advantage over Republicans in the city and 2-to-1 in the county.
Before this century, Hamilton and Franklin were the only counties among the state's big-six urban counties that leaned Republican. But both gradually have shifted, supporting Democrat Barack Obama in 2008.
In that presidential election, the Democratic vote in Franklin County was 16 percent higher than the overall Democratic vote statewide. That's a profound change in a county that used to vote more Republican than the rest of the state.
In the seven presidential elections between 1972 and 1996, the percentage of GOP votes in Franklin County was higher than that statewide. That began to change in 2000, when in the next three elections, Democratic votes in the county grew stronger than those statewide.
In the 2006 gubernatorial race, Democrat Ted Strickland nearly doubled Republican J. Kenneth Blackwell's vote take in the county, beating him by 118,935 votes. Blackwell won just 28 of the county's 833 precincts then, including three by one vote.
Sinnott said Reynoldsburg "is a case study of how Franklin County is changing." In the 2000 presidential election, Republican George W. Bush won 56 percent of the city's votes. In 2008, Obama won 53 percent of Reynoldsburg's vote.
Despite the Democrats' dominance in Franklin County, political observers agree that it's foolish to count out Republicans, particularly this year, when signs point to a possible GOP resurgence resulting from anxiety over Ohio's anemic economy and anger about Obama's agenda, in part spawning the Tea Party movement.
"We think we may have an opportunity with the environment this year, but we're not going to count on getting lucky," said Franklin County GOP Chairman Doug Preisse. "We're going to have to earn it with strong candidates and the right message."
In the midterm election, Preisse's priorities are to deliver Franklin County to gubernatorial candidate John Kasich and the rest of the GOP statewide ticket; elect Clarence Mingo, who was appointed Franklin County auditor last year; defeat Democratic Commissioner Marilyn Brown; win back seats lost in the Ohio House; and increase judgeships.
Although judges run as nonpartisans in general elections, Republicans continue to dominate all court branches in the county, including a 15-8 advantage in Common Pleas Court.
Coleman said a progressive-minded Republican still can be elected to City Hall, citing his predecessor, Republican Mayor Greg Lashutka, as the type of "can-do" candidate voters like. Ideologues do not fare well in Columbus or the county, he said.
"Columbus is a progressive city, whether you're a Democrat, Republican or independent," Coleman said. "I think the candidates the Republicans have recently turned out have identified themselves only with the (conservative) Republican base and not beyond."
Herb Asher, an Ohio State University political scientist, said county voters have a history of electing moderates from both parties and the Franklin County GOP "is a more diverse party" than in other parts of the state.
"If you look at Republican officeholders at the county level here, they're pretty pragmatic," Asher said. "The legislative Republicans are, by and large, what I would call more traditional conservatives."
Ferris said he almost won the council seat by doing what is required of serious candidates: raising plenty of money, assembling a strong organization and campaigning tirelessly. He eschewed the notion that a conservative can't be elected to City Hall.
"I'm going to be, if I choose to run next time, even stronger," he said.